How often has Aaron Jones gone over 2.5 receptions?

Aaron Jones has cleared 2.5 receptions in 6 of his last 10 games (spanning two seasons).

What is Aaron Jones's receptions line in Week 4?

Aaron Jones's Week 4 receptions line is 2.5 against MIA. The ProprStats model projects 2 (median).

Aaron Jones Receptions Prop — Week 4

RB · MIN vs MIA · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 1

6 of 10cleared 2.5 receptions in his last 10 (two seasons)

2.5Week 4 line

2Model median

46%Model over

68ProprScore

Model read: Aaron Jones projects 2 catches (median), 0.5 under the 2.5 line — the model leans under. Research signal — not a bet.

Aaron Jones vs the 2.5 line — last 10 games

Week	Opp	Rec	Tgt	Result
Wk 3	TB	5	6	OVER
Wk 2	CHI	0	0	UNDER
Wk 1	GB	0	1	UNDER
25 wk17	DET	3	4	OVER
25 wk16	NYG	2	3	UNDER
25 wk15	DAL	3	3	OVER
25 wk14	WAS	0	1	UNDER
25 wk13	SEA	4	4	OVER
25 wk12	GB	3	4	OVER
25 wk11	CHI	3	6	OVER

Graded against this week's 2.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

12.1%Share of team throws

2.9Targets / game

62%Routes run

-0.8Avg depth of target

14Yards / game

62%Snap share

Aaron Jones's other Week 4 props

Receiving YardsLine 18.5 Anytime TouchdownLine 0.5

More NFL prop research

TD ZoneScoring field map, red-zone target share, goal-line usage Props BoardEvery Week 4 prop ranked Aaron Jones overviewAll props, usage and matchup

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.