Model read: Aaron Jones projects 17 rec yds (median), 1.2 under the 18.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+3.7 yds) and pulled down by projected game total and pass rate (-0.9 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | TB | 34 | 6 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | CHI | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | GB | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | DET | 10 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | NYG | 8 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | DAL | 31 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | WAS | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | SEA | 22 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | GB | 16 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | CHI | 11 | 6 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 18.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.