Aaron Jones Props — Week 4

RB · MIN vs MIA · 2026 Week 4

Every Week 4 prop, with his record against the line

ReceptionsLine 2.5 — cleared in 6 of last 10 Receiving YardsLine 18.5 — cleared in 3 of last 10 Anytime Touchdown32% model probability to score

Model view

Prop	Line	Model	Over	ProprScore
Receptions	2.5	2	46%	68
Receiving Yards	18.5	17.3	47%	48
Anytime Touchdown	—	32%	—	—

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.