Every prop on the Week 4 board with the model's projection and, for each one, how often that player has actually cleared this week's number. 364 props across 4 markets.
Lines and model output updated Oct 1, 7:00 PM ET
Ranked by ProprScore: how far the model's projection sits from the posted line relative to how wide that outcome's own range is. The right-hand column is the player's record against this week's line, which is a count of what happened rather than anything the model produced.
Sorted by the model's probability that each player scores. This market carries no line and no ProprScore — there is nothing to disagree with a book about, so it is ranked on the probability alone.
TD Zone has the full set — scoring-field map, red-zone target share and goal-line usage for every candidate.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.