Model read: Josh Downs projects 52 rec yds (median), 10.6 under the 62.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+5.7 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-2.3 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | HOU | 77 | 11 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | KC | 72 | 9 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | BAL | 37 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | HOU | 61 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | JAX | 34 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | SF | 65 | 9 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | SEA | 13 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | JAX | 23 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | HOU | 44 | 6 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | KC | 10 | 6 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 62.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.