Model read: Brian Thomas Jr. projects 42 rec yds (median), 13.0 over the 28.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+7.1 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-2.7 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | NE | 8 | 1 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | DEN | 40 | 8 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | CLE | 40 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | TEN | 49 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | IND | 39 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | DEN | 18 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | NYJ | 66 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | IND | 87 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | TEN | 28 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk9 | LV | 55 | 5 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 28.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.