Model read: Zay Flowers projects 79 rec yds (median), 11.1 over the 67.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+14.5 yds) and pulled down by average target depth and yards after the catch (-15.8 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | DAL | 84 | 6 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | IND | 150 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | PIT | 138 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | GB | 30 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | NE | 84 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | CIN | 68 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | PIT | 124 | 11 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | CIN | 6 | 7 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | NYJ | 58 | 6 | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | CLE | 78 | 5 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 67.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.