Zay Flowers Receiving Yards Prop — Week 4

WR · BAL vs TEN · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 1

7 of 10cleared 67.5 receiving yards in his last 10 (two seasons)
67.5Week 4 line
78.6Model median
58%Model over
59ProprScore

Model read: Zay Flowers projects 79 rec yds (median), 11.1 over the 67.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+14.5 yds) and pulled down by average target depth and yards after the catch (-15.8 yds). Research signal — not a bet.

Zay Flowers vs the 67.5 line — last 10 games

WeekOppYdsTgtResult
Wk 3DAL846OVER
Wk 1IND1506OVER
25 wk18PIT1386OVER
25 wk17GB305UNDER
25 wk16NE847OVER
25 wk15CIN685OVER
25 wk14PIT12411OVER
25 wk13CIN67UNDER
25 wk12NYJ586UNDER
25 wk11CLE785OVER

Graded against this week's 67.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

28.1%Share of team throws
6.5Targets / game
59%Routes run
11.2Avg depth of target
94.1Yards / game
59%Snap share

Zay Flowers's other Week 4 props

More NFL prop research

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.