How often has Zach Ertz gone over 2.5 receptions?

Zach Ertz has cleared 2.5 receptions in 7 of his last 10 games (spanning two seasons).

What is Zach Ertz's receptions line in Week 4?

Zach Ertz's Week 4 receptions line is 2.5 against LA. The ProprStats model projects 3 (median).

Zach Ertz Receptions Prop — Week 4

TE · PHI vs LA · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 2

7 of 10cleared 2.5 receptions in his last 10 (two seasons)

2.5Week 4 line

3Model median

60%Model over

76ProprScore

Model read: Zach Ertz projects 3 catches (median), 0.5 over the 2.5 line — the model leans over. Research signal — not a bet.

Zach Ertz vs the 2.5 line — last 10 games

Week	Opp	Rec	Tgt	Result
Wk 3	CHI	1	2	UNDER
25 wk14	MIN	1	2	UNDER
25 wk13	DEN	10	13	OVER
25 wk11	MIA	4	8	OVER
25 wk10	DET	4	5	OVER
25 wk9	SEA	4	4	OVER
25 wk8	KC	4	6	OVER
25 wk7	DAL	3	7	OVER
25 wk6	CHI	6	6	OVER
25 wk5	LAC	0	1	UNDER

Graded against this week's 2.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

13.8%Share of team throws

3.8Targets / game

67%Routes run

5.6Avg depth of target

23.9Yards / game

67%Snap share

Zach Ertz's other Week 4 props

Receiving YardsLine 15.5 Anytime TouchdownLine 0.5

More NFL prop research

TD ZoneScoring field map, red-zone target share, goal-line usage Props BoardEvery Week 4 prop ranked Zach Ertz overviewAll props, usage and matchup

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.