Model read: Zach Ertz projects 21 rec yds (median), 5.7 over the 15.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+4.5 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-2.8 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | CHI | 9 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | MIN | 11 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | DEN | 106 | 13 | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | MIA | 42 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk10 | DET | 54 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk9 | SEA | 46 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk8 | KC | 16 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk7 | DAL | 37 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk6 | CHI | 43 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk5 | LAC | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 15.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.