Model read: Xavier Worthy projects 42 rec yds (median), 8.5 over the 33.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+10.5 yds) and pulled down by projected game total and pass rate (-0.8 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | MIA | 20 | 2 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | IND | 25 | 7 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | DEN | 18 | 6 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | DEN | 0 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | TEN | 41 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | LAC | 35 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | HOU | 55 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | DAL | 61 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | IND | 59 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | DEN | 25 | 5 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 33.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.