Model read: Xavier Hutchinson projects 39 rec yds (median), 9.6 over the 29.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+7.9 yds) and pulled down by projected game total and pass rate (-0.5 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | IND | 51 | 6 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | CIN | 37 | 9 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | BUF | 32 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | IND | 84 | 9 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | LAC | 21 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | LV | 4 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | ARI | 16 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | KC | 0 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | IND | 39 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | BUF | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 29.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.