Model read: Tyquan Thornton projects 24 rec yds (median), 4.0 over the 20.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+3.4 yds) and pulled down by projected game total and pass rate (-10.6 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | MIA | 22 | 2 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | IND | 86 | 4 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | DEN | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | LAC | 47 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | HOU | 19 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | DAL | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | IND | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | DEN | 61 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk9 | BUF | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk7 | LV | 39 | 2 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 20.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.