Tyquan Thornton Receiving Yards Prop — Week 4

WR · KC vs LV · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 2

5 of 10cleared 20.5 receiving yards in his last 10 (two seasons)
20.5Week 4 line
24.5Model median
55%Model over
50ProprScore

Model read: Tyquan Thornton projects 24 rec yds (median), 4.0 over the 20.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+3.4 yds) and pulled down by projected game total and pass rate (-10.6 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.

Tyquan Thornton vs the 20.5 line — last 10 games

WeekOppYdsTgtResult
Wk 3MIA222OVER
Wk 2IND864OVER
Wk 1DEN01UNDER
25 wk15LAC473OVER
25 wk14HOU193UNDER
25 wk13DAL00UNDER
25 wk12IND01UNDER
25 wk11DEN612OVER
25 wk9BUF01UNDER
25 wk7LV392OVER

Graded against this week's 20.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

8.3%Share of team throws
2.7Targets / game
48%Routes run
23.5Avg depth of target
36.2Yards / game
48%Snap share

Tyquan Thornton's other Week 4 props

More NFL prop research

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.