Model read: Tyler Allgeier projects 10 rec yds (median), 7.8 over the 2.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+2.3 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-0.6 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | SF | 10 | 4 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | SEA | 9 | 2 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | LAC | 9 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | NO | 3 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | LA | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | ARI | -6 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | TB | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | SEA | 33 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | NYJ | 35 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | NO | 5 | 1 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 2.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.