Model read: Travis Kelce projects 51 rec yds (median), 3.1 over the 47.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+7.6 yds) and pulled down by average target depth and yards after the catch (-8.8 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | MIA | 59 | 2 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | IND | 101 | 11 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | DEN | 71 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | LV | 12 | 6 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | DEN | 36 | 6 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | TEN | 6 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | LAC | 70 | 9 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | HOU | 8 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | DAL | 45 | 6 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | IND | 43 | 6 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 47.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.