Model read: Stefon Diggs projects 38 rec yds (median), 5.2 under the 43.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by his target share vs. last season (+5.0 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-16.1 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | SEA | 33 | 7 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | DAL | 47 | 6 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | PHI | 55 | 9 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | MIA | 43 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | NYJ | 101 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | BAL | 138 | 10 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | BUF | 26 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | NYG | 26 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | CIN | 20 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | NYJ | 105 | 11 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 43.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.