Model read: Saquon Barkley projects 15 rec yds (median), 0.9 over the 14.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+3.1 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | CHI | -2 | 2 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | TEN | 11 | 2 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | WAS | -3 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | BUF | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | WAS | 0 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | LV | 14 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | LAC | 0 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | CHI | 0 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | DAL | 52 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | DET | 7 | 2 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 14.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.