Model read: Roman Wilson projects 22 rec yds (median), 0.4 over the 21.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+1.9 yds) and pulled down by average target depth and yards after the catch (-1.9 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | CIN | 60 | 6 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | NE | 28 | 6 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | ATL | 26 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | BUF | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | CHI | 0 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | CIN | 17 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk10 | LAC | 35 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk9 | IND | 4 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk8 | GB | 74 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk7 | CIN | 17 | 2 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 21.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.