Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop — Week 4

TE · PIT vs CLE · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 1

3 of 10cleared 3.5 receptions in his last 10 (two seasons)
3.5Week 4 line
3Model median
33%Model over
60ProprScore

Model read: Pat Freiermuth projects 3 catches (median), 0.5 under the 3.5 line — the model leans under. Research signal — not a bet.

Pat Freiermuth vs the 3.5 line — last 10 games

WeekOppRecTgtResult
Wk 3CIN24UNDER
Wk 2NE45OVER
Wk 1ATL55OVER
25 wk18BAL35UNDER
25 wk17CLE35UNDER
25 wk16DET44OVER
25 wk15MIA35UNDER
25 wk14BAL23UNDER
25 wk12CHI33UNDER
25 wk11CIN11UNDER

Graded against this week's 3.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

12.3%Share of team throws
4.1Targets / game
58%Routes run
7.2Avg depth of target
34.2Yards / game
58%Snap share

Pat Freiermuth's other Week 4 props

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Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.