Model read: Pat Freiermuth projects 27 rec yds (median), 0.2 under the 27.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+2.2 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-3.2 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | CIN | 30 | 4 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | NE | 32 | 5 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | ATL | 46 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | BAL | 51 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | CLE | 63 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | DET | 20 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | MIA | 45 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | BAL | 9 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | CHI | 19 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | CIN | 19 | 1 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 27.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.