Model read: Mike Evans projects 19 rec yds (median), 25.4 under the 44.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by average target depth and yards after the catch (+6.9 yds) and pulled down by his target share vs. last season (-21.1 yds). ⚠ Listed Questionable: ~69% play-probability, so the workload is trimmed and the outcomes carry real mass at zero — treat with caution. Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | ARI | 34 | 6 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | MIA | 54 | 3 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | LA | 49 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | CAR | 34 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | MIA | 31 | 7 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | CAR | 31 | 9 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | ATL | 132 | 12 | OVER |
| 25 wk7 | DET | 0 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk3 | NYJ | 33 | 9 | UNDER |
| 25 wk2 | HOU | 56 | 11 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 44.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.