Model read: MarShawn Lloyd projects 8 rec yds (median), 1.9 over the 6.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by yards per target the defense allows (+2.7 yds) and pulled down by target volume vs role baseline (-8.7 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | ATL | 7 | 3 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | NYJ | 6 | 2 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | MIN | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 6.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.