Model read: Luther Burden III projects 35 rec yds (median), 11.6 under the 46.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by yards per target the defense allows (+2.4 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-8.0 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | PHI | 61 | 11 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | MIN | 32 | 7 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | CAR | 63 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | DET | 35 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | SF | 138 | 9 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | CLE | 84 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | GB | 67 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | PHI | 33 | 6 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | PIT | 46 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | MIN | 27 | 5 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 46.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.