Model read: Kyle Williams projects 14 rec yds (median), 1.0 over the 12.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+4.7 yds) and pulled down by average target depth and yards after the catch (-3.4 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | JAX | 34 | 3 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | PIT | 10 | 2 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | SEA | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | MIA | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | NYJ | 20 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | BAL | 46 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | BUF | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | NYG | 33 | 1 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | CIN | 18 | 1 | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | NYJ | 0 | 3 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 12.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.