Model read: Kyle Pitts projects 22 rec yds (median), 6.3 under the 28.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+2.4 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-5.0 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | GB | 5 | 2 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | CAR | 15 | 3 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | PIT | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | NO | 58 | 9 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | LA | 16 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | ARI | 57 | 9 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | TB | 166 | 12 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | SEA | 90 | 10 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | NYJ | 82 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | NO | 25 | 5 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 28.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.