Model read: Kenny Gainwell projects 12 rec yds (median), 1.2 over the 10.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+6.3 yds) and pulled down by less certain of his role after the move (-7.9 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | MIN | 14 | 5 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | CLE | 5 | 4 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | CIN | 3 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | BAL | 64 | 9 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | CLE | 12 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | DET | 78 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | MIA | 46 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | BAL | 27 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | BUF | 25 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | CHI | 30 | 6 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 10.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.