Model read: Juwan Johnson projects 29 rec yds (median), 10.2 under the 39.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by yards per target the defense allows (+3.1 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-20.6 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | LV | 53 | 8 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | BAL | 66 | 4 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | DET | 54 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | ATL | 61 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | TEN | 95 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | NYJ | 89 | 9 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | CAR | 30 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | TB | 38 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | MIA | 39 | 9 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | ATL | 46 | 7 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 39.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.