How often has Jaylin Noel gone over 12.5 receiving yards?

Jaylin Noel has cleared 12.5 receiving yards in 5 of his last 10 games (spanning two seasons).

What is Jaylin Noel's receiving yards line in Week 4?

Jaylin Noel's Week 4 receiving yards line is 12.5 against DAL. The ProprStats model projects 17.4 (median).

Jaylin Noel Receiving Yards Prop — Week 4

WR · HOU vs DAL · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 2

5 of 10cleared 12.5 receiving yards in his last 10 (two seasons)

12.5Week 4 line

17.4Model median

59%Model over

60ProprScore

Model read: Jaylin Noel projects 17 rec yds (median), 4.9 over the 12.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+2.0 yds) and pulled down by projected game total and pass rate (-7.2 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.

Jaylin Noel vs the 12.5 line — last 10 games

Week	Opp	Yds	Tgt	Result
Wk 3	IND	17	2	OVER
Wk 2	CIN	31	5	OVER
Wk 1	BUF	53	2	OVER
25 wk18	IND	13	1	OVER
25 wk17	LAC	54	4	OVER
25 wk16	LV	0	0	UNDER
25 wk15	ARI	0	0	UNDER
25 wk14	KC	12	2	UNDER
25 wk13	IND	0	1	UNDER
25 wk12	BUF	4	2	UNDER

Graded against this week's 12.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

7.2%Share of team throws

2.5Targets / game

32%Routes run

9.2Avg depth of target

25.4Yards / game

32%Snap share

Jaylin Noel's other Week 4 props

ReceptionsLine 1.5

More NFL prop research

TD ZoneScoring field map, red-zone target share, goal-line usage Props BoardEvery Week 4 prop ranked Jaylin Noel overviewAll props, usage and matchup

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.