Model read: Jaylen Warren projects 18 rec yds (median), 8.5 under the 26.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+1.8 yds) and pulled down by average target depth and yards after the catch (-5.9 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | CIN | 49 | 4 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | NE | 34 | 4 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | ATL | 27 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | BAL | 33 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | CLE | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | DET | 8 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | MIA | 15 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | BAL | 49 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | BUF | 9 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | CHI | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 26.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.