Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Prop — Week 4

WR · SEA vs LAC · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 1

8 of 10cleared 6.5 receptions in his last 10 (two seasons)
6.5Week 4 line
6Model median
45%Model over
63ProprScore

Model read: Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 6 catches (median), 0.5 under the 6.5 line — the model leans under. Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs the 6.5 line — last 10 games

WeekOppRecTgtResult
Wk 3WAS1014OVER
Wk 2ARI911OVER
Wk 1NE811OVER
25 wk18SF68UNDER
25 wk17CAR912OVER
25 wk16LA813OVER
25 wk15IND79OVER
25 wk14ATL710OVER
25 wk13MIN24UNDER
25 wk12TEN810OVER

Graded against this week's 6.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

36.9%Share of team throws
10.8Targets / game
79%Routes run
10.5Avg depth of target
120.2Yards / game
79%Snap share

Jaxon Smith-Njigba's other Week 4 props

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Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.