Model read: Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 6 catches (median), 0.5 under the 6.5 line — the model leans under. Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Rec | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | WAS | 10 | 14 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | ARI | 9 | 11 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | NE | 8 | 11 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | SF | 6 | 8 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | CAR | 9 | 12 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | LA | 8 | 13 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | IND | 7 | 9 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | ATL | 7 | 10 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | MIN | 2 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | TEN | 8 | 10 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 6.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.