Model read: Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 73 rec yds (median), 18.4 under the 91.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+10.7 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-38.5 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | WAS | 128 | 14 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | ARI | 155 | 11 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | NE | 122 | 11 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | SF | 84 | 8 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | CAR | 72 | 12 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | LA | 96 | 13 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | IND | 113 | 9 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | ATL | 92 | 10 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | MIN | 23 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | TEN | 167 | 10 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 91.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.