Model read: Jameson Williams projects 43 rec yds (median), 8.4 under the 51.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+3.7 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-7.5 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | NYJ | 49 | 4 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | BUF | 33 | 4 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | NO | 45 | 9 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | CHI | 74 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | MIN | 37 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | PIT | 70 | 9 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | LA | 134 | 10 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | DAL | 96 | 9 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | GB | 144 | 10 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | NYG | 0 | 3 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 51.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.