Model read: Ja'Marr Chase projects 73 rec yds (median), 8.4 under the 81.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+5.1 yds) and pulled down by projected game total and pass rate (-6.7 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | PIT | 98 | 12 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | HOU | 75 | 9 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | TB | 12 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | CLE | 96 | 10 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | ARI | 60 | 9 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | MIA | 109 | 11 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | BAL | 132 | 16 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | BUF | 44 | 8 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | BAL | 110 | 14 | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | PIT | 30 | 10 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 81.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.