How often has Jake Ferguson gone over 3.5 receptions?

Jake Ferguson has cleared 3.5 receptions in 4 of his last 10 games (spanning two seasons).

What is Jake Ferguson's receptions line in Week 4?

Jake Ferguson's Week 4 receptions line is 3.5 against HOU. The ProprStats model projects 3 (median).

Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop — Week 4

TE · DAL vs HOU · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 1

4 of 10cleared 3.5 receptions in his last 10 (two seasons)

3.5Week 4 line

3Model median

43%Model over

49ProprScore

Model read: Jake Ferguson projects 3 catches (median), 0.5 under the 3.5 line — the model leans under. Research signal — not a bet.

Jake Ferguson vs the 3.5 line — last 10 games

Week	Opp	Rec	Tgt	Result
Wk 3	BAL	3	5	UNDER
Wk 2	WAS	4	4	OVER
Wk 1	NYG	2	2	UNDER
25 wk18	NYG	1	2	UNDER
25 wk17	WAS	1	2	UNDER
25 wk16	LAC	3	4	UNDER
25 wk15	MIN	2	4	UNDER
25 wk14	DET	5	7	OVER
25 wk13	KC	5	6	OVER
25 wk12	PHI	5	6	OVER

Graded against this week's 3.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

13.8%Share of team throws

4.8Targets / game

68%Routes run

4.5Avg depth of target

29.6Yards / game

68%Snap share

Jake Ferguson's other Week 4 props

Receiving YardsLine 24.5 Anytime TouchdownLine 0.5

More NFL prop research

TD ZoneScoring field map, red-zone target share, goal-line usage Props BoardEvery Week 4 prop ranked Jake Ferguson overviewAll props, usage and matchup

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.