Model read: Jake Ferguson projects 22 rec yds (median), 2.5 under the 24.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by average target depth and yards after the catch (+3.3 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-4.7 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | BAL | 23 | 5 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | WAS | 43 | 4 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | NYG | 6 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | NYG | 5 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | WAS | 6 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | LAC | 19 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | MIN | 16 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | DET | 58 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | KC | 36 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | PHI | 60 | 6 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 24.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.