Model read: Jahmyr Gibbs projects 29 rec yds (median), 6.2 under the 35.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+2.6 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-13.2 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | NYJ | 65 | 8 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | BUF | 61 | 8 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | NO | 30 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | CHI | 33 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | MIN | 23 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | PIT | 66 | 13 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | LA | 20 | 7 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | DAL | 77 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | GB | 18 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | NYG | 45 | 12 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 35.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.