Model read: Isaiah Williams projects 19 rec yds (median), 3.5 under the 22.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+6.6 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-3.8 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | DET | 21 | 2 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | GB | 34 | 6 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | TEN | 7 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | BUF | 24 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | NE | 30 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | NO | 25 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | JAX | 53 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | MIA | 24 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | ATL | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | BAL | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 22.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.