Model read: Foster Moreau projects 10 rec yds (median), 3.6 over the 6.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+1.3 yds) and pulled down by less certain of his role after the move (-3.8 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | IND | 7 | 4 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | CIN | 34 | 2 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | BUF | 15 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | NYJ | 5 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | TB | 16 | 1 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | MIA | 13 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | ATL | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk10 | CAR | 16 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk8 | TB | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk6 | NE | 9 | 1 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 6.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.