Foster Moreau Receiving Yards Prop — Week 4

TE · HOU vs DAL · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 2

7 of 10cleared 6.5 receiving yards in his last 10 (two seasons)
6.5Week 4 line
10.1Model median
60%Model over
63ProprScore

Model read: Foster Moreau projects 10 rec yds (median), 3.6 over the 6.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+1.3 yds) and pulled down by less certain of his role after the move (-3.8 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.

Foster Moreau vs the 6.5 line — last 10 games

WeekOppYdsTgtResult
Wk 3IND74OVER
Wk 2CIN342OVER
Wk 1BUF152OVER
25 wk16NYJ51UNDER
25 wk14TB161OVER
25 wk13MIA132OVER
25 wk12ATL01UNDER
25 wk10CAR163OVER
25 wk8TB01UNDER
25 wk6NE91OVER

Graded against this week's 6.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

6.3%Share of team throws
2Targets / game
40%Routes run
2.6Avg depth of target
13.5Yards / game
40%Snap share

Foster Moreau's other Week 4 props

More NFL prop research

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.