Evan Engram Receiving Yards Prop — Week 4

TE · DEN vs SF · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 1

6 of 10cleared 17.5 receiving yards in his last 10 (two seasons)
17.5Week 4 line
18.7Model median
53%Model over
46ProprScore

Model read: Evan Engram projects 19 rec yds (median), 1.2 over the 17.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by average target depth and yards after the catch (+1.6 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-4.6 yds). Research signal — not a bet.

Evan Engram vs the 17.5 line — last 10 games

WeekOppYdsTgtResult
Wk 3LA02UNDER
Wk 2JAX171UNDER
Wk 1KC435OVER
25 wk18LAC454OVER
25 wk17KC214OVER
25 wk16JAX364OVER
25 wk15GB123UNDER
25 wk14LV82UNDER
25 wk13WAS799OVER
25 wk11KC335OVER

Graded against this week's 17.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

11.4%Share of team throws
3.7Targets / game
50%Routes run
4.4Avg depth of target
24.4Yards / game
50%Snap share

Evan Engram's other Week 4 props

More NFL prop research

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.