Model read: DK Metcalf projects 4 catches (median), 0.5 over the 3.5 line — the model leans over. Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Rec | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | CIN | 3 | 5 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | NE | 4 | 9 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | ATL | 4 | 10 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | DET | 4 | 9 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | MIA | 3 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | BAL | 7 | 12 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | BUF | 3 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | CHI | 5 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | CIN | 5 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk10 | LAC | 3 | 7 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 3.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.