Model read: DK Metcalf projects 53 rec yds (median), 5.4 over the 47.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+10.3 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-2.8 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | CIN | 31 | 5 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | NE | 27 | 9 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | ATL | 40 | 10 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | DET | 42 | 9 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | MIA | 55 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | BAL | 148 | 12 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | BUF | 32 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | CHI | 22 | 8 | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | CIN | 49 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk10 | LAC | 35 | 7 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 47.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.