Dawson Knox Receptions Prop — Week 4

TE · BUF vs NE · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 2

7 of 10cleared 1.5 receptions in his last 10 (two seasons)
1.5Week 4 line
1Model median
41%Model over
50ProprScore

Model read: Dawson Knox projects 1 catches (median), 0.5 under the 1.5 line — the model leans under. Research signal — not a bet.

Dawson Knox vs the 1.5 line — last 10 games

WeekOppRecTgtResult
Wk 3LAC11UNDER
Wk 2DET22OVER
Wk 1HOU11UNDER
25 wk18NYJ22OVER
25 wk17PHI55OVER
25 wk16CLE12UNDER
25 wk15NE34OVER
25 wk14CIN67OVER
25 wk13PIT34OVER
25 wk12HOU34OVER

Graded against this week's 1.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

7.9%Share of team throws
2.2Targets / game
65%Routes run
4.4Avg depth of target
15.9Yards / game
65%Snap share

Dawson Knox's other Week 4 props

More NFL prop research

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.