Model read: Dawson Knox projects 9 rec yds (median), 1.2 under the 10.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by average target depth and yards after the catch (+1.5 yds) and pulled down by projected game total and pass rate (-3.4 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | LAC | 5 | 1 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | DET | 5 | 2 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | HOU | 7 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | NYJ | 24 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | PHI | 30 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | CLE | 10 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | NE | 37 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | CIN | 93 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | PIT | 28 | 4 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | HOU | 17 | 4 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 10.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.