David Montgomery Receptions Prop — Week 4

RB · HOU vs DAL · 2026 Week 4 · updated Oct 2

6 of 10cleared 1.5 receptions in his last 10 (two seasons)
1.5Week 4 line
2Model median
55%Model over
48ProprScore

Model read: David Montgomery projects 2 catches (median), 0.5 over the 1.5 line — the model leans over. Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.

David Montgomery vs the 1.5 line — last 10 games

WeekOppRecTgtResult
Wk 3IND22OVER
Wk 2CIN22OVER
Wk 1BUF33OVER
25 wk18CHI11UNDER
25 wk17MIN22OVER
25 wk16PIT00UNDER
25 wk15LA01UNDER
25 wk14DAL11UNDER
25 wk13GB22OVER
25 wk12NYG33OVER

Graded against this week's 1.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.

What the model is reading

6.2%Share of team throws
2Targets / game
46%Routes run
2Avg depth of target
13.6Yards / game
46%Snap share

David Montgomery's other Week 4 props

More NFL prop research

Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.