Model read: David Montgomery projects 14 rec yds (median), 3.8 over the 10.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by yards per target the defense allows (+1.4 yds) and pulled down by projected game total and pass rate (-1.4 yds). Soft spot: a thin sample. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | IND | 15 | 2 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | CIN | 14 | 2 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | BUF | 19 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | CHI | 13 | 1 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | MIN | 15 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | PIT | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | LA | 0 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | DAL | 13 | 1 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | GB | 16 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | NYG | 19 | 3 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 10.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.