Model read: Courtland Sutton projects 43 rec yds (median), 4.1 over the 38.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by yards per target the defense allows (+5.0 yds) and pulled down by how many teammates are also drawing targets (-6.4 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | LA | 46 | 7 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | JAX | 25 | 4 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | KC | 11 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | LAC | 5 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | KC | 40 | 10 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | JAX | 86 | 12 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | GB | 113 | 10 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | LV | 62 | 10 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | WAS | 62 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk11 | KC | 59 | 8 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 38.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.