Model read: Bucky Irving projects 18 rec yds (median), 4.5 over the 13.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by how many teammates are also drawing targets (+3.1 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-2.5 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | MIN | 12 | 4 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | CLE | 1 | 4 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | CIN | 48 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | CAR | 13 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | MIA | 14 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | CAR | 0 | 0 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | ATL | 11 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | NO | 26 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | ARI | 20 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk4 | PHI | 102 | 5 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 13.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.