Model read: Brian Thomas Jr. projects 3 catches (median), 0.5 over the 2.5 line — the model leans over. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Rec | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | NE | 1 | 1 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | DEN | 3 | 8 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | CLE | 3 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | TEN | 3 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk17 | IND | 4 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | DEN | 2 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | NYJ | 4 | 7 | OVER |
| 25 wk14 | IND | 3 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk13 | TEN | 2 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk9 | LV | 3 | 5 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 2.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.