Model read: Ashton Jeanty projects 26 rec yds (median), 4.0 over the 21.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+3.6 yds) and pulled down by yards per target the defense allows (-4.1 yds). Soft spot: a volatile role. Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | NO | 37 | 3 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | LAC | 15 | 7 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | MIA | 45 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk18 | KC | 7 | 5 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | NYG | 13 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk16 | HOU | 60 | 2 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | PHI | 7 | 6 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | DEN | 8 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | LAC | 30 | 8 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | CLE | 58 | 8 | OVER |
Graded against this week's 21.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.