Model read: AJ Barner projects 27 rec yds (median), 3.3 under the 30.5 line — the model leans under. Its yards projection is lifted most by his team's pass volume vs. last season (+3.9 yds) and pulled down by average target depth and yards after the catch (-3.5 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | WAS | 69 | 9 | OVER |
| Wk 2 | ARI | 8 | 1 | UNDER |
| Wk 1 | NE | 13 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | SF | 14 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | CAR | 43 | 3 | OVER |
| 25 wk16 | LA | 49 | 6 | OVER |
| 25 wk15 | IND | 27 | 6 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | ATL | 27 | 4 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | MIN | 35 | 5 | OVER |
| 25 wk12 | TEN | 18 | 4 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 30.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.