Model read: Woody Marks projects 15 rec yds (median), 4.4 over the 10.5 line — the model leans over. Its yards projection is lifted most by yards per target the defense allows (+2.7 yds) and pulled down by projected game total and pass rate (-0.2 yds). Research signal — not a bet.
| Week | Opp | Yds | Tgt | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | IND | 6 | 1 | UNDER |
| Wk 2 | CIN | 27 | 6 | OVER |
| Wk 1 | BUF | -2 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk18 | IND | 0 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk17 | LAC | 4 | 2 | UNDER |
| 25 wk15 | ARI | 8 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk14 | KC | 8 | 3 | UNDER |
| 25 wk13 | IND | 3 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk12 | BUF | -5 | 1 | UNDER |
| 25 wk11 | TEN | 7 | 1 | UNDER |
Graded against this week's 10.5 line, not the line each game was actually posted at — so it answers “how often would this number have cleared”, which is the question a bettor is asking today.
Research tool. ProprScore is an ABSOLUTE 35–89 scale (never higher): it measures how far our projection sits from the line relative to the outcome's own spread — NOT a betting edge or confidence. A quiet slate tops out low, and that is information. Testing found no betting edge on the main line.